Long-Term Urban Epidemic and Disaster Resilience: The Planning and Assessment of a Comprehensive Underground Resilience Core

This study utilizes the enclosed and stable environment of underground space for long-term sustainable planning for urban epidemics and disasters. Owing to the COVID-19 epidemic, cities require long-term epidemic-disaster management. Therefore, this study proposed a strategy for integrating multiple functions to plan a comprehensive Underground Resilience Core (URC). A planning and assessment methods of URC were proposed. With this methodology, epidemic- and disaster- URCs were integrated to construct a comprehensive-URC in underground spaces. The results show: (1) Epidemic-resilient URCs adopting a joint progressive approach with designated hospitals can rapidly suppress an epidemic outbreak. (2) The regularity of the morphology of underground spaces determines the area of the URC. Bar-shaped underground spaces have the potential for planning disaster-URCs. (3) The URC planning efficiency ranking is as follows: Bar shapes lead overall, T shapes are second under seismic resilience, and Cross shapes are second under epidemic resilience. (4) The potential analysis of planning a comprehensive-URC in the underground parking in Chinese cities showed that the recovery time can be advanced from 29% to 39% and the comprehensive resilience can be improved by 37.63%. The results of this study can serve as sustainable urban planning strategies and assessment tools for long-term epidemic-disaster management.

Differential and Time-Discrete SEIRS Models with Vaccination: Local Stability, Validation and Sensitivity Analysis Using Bulgarian COVID-19 Data

Bulgaria has the lowest COVID-19 vaccination rate in the European Union and the second-highest COVID-19 mortality rate in the world. That is why we think it is important better to understand the reason for this situation and to analyse the development of the disease over time. In this paper, an extended time-dependent SEIRS model SEIRS-VB is used to investigate the long-term behaviour of the COVID-19 epidemic. This model includes vaccination and vital dynamics. To apply the SEIRS-VB model some numerical simulation tools have been developed and for this reason a family of time-discrete variants are introduced. Suitable inverse problems for the identification of parameters in discrete models are solved. A methodology is proposed for selecting a discrete model from the constructed family, which has the closest parameter values to these in the differential SEIRS-VB model. To validate the studied models, Bulgarian COVID-19 data are used. To obtain all these results for the discrete models a mathematical analysis is carried out to illustrate some biological properties of the differential model SEIRS-VB, such as the non-negativity, boundedness, existence, and uniqueness. Using the next-generation method, the basic reproduction number associated with the model in the autonomous case is defined. The local stability of the disease-free equilibrium point is studied. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number is performed.

Preventive Measures and Spread of COVID-19 Infection among Dental students in Basra in the First Period of the Epidemic in Iraq: An Online Cross-Sectional Survey

This study was undertaken in the college of the Dentistry-University of Basra, Oral and maxillofacial surgery Department. This survey assessed protective measures regarding COVID-19 infection and aimed to evaluation the evidence on the affiliation between use of preventive measures and COVID-19 infection among dental students in Basra. The questionnaires were designed and assembled into two domains as follows: 1-Personal data including age, sex, and academic stage. 2-Analytical data including questions regarding infection rate among dental students and their commitment of COVID-19 preventive measures. An explanation for the aim of this study was coupled to the questionnaire, and the members were asked to sign an online informed permission. The questionnaires were directed toward 1000 dental students and only 875 were responding to the survey and included in the databank. The duration of study approximately takes 10 days, the questionnaire was conducted to students on February, 12th 2020 and the documents collecting were closed at (February, 22nd 2020). On the topic of preventive measures follow in order to avoid the dispersion of COVID-19 infection, an endemic feature of Corona virus disease has led to the deaths of thousands of individuals across several countries. For the prevention of the extent of the disease and its mortality, several preventive measures have been recommended. Conversely, the level of acquaintance and the implementation of such protective measures against COVID-19 among dental students in Basra which constitute vulnerable group are yet to be evaluated. Eight-hundred and seventy-fife questionnaires were analysed. Out of the 875 participants, (250) were males, and (675) were females. Two hundred and sixty-one (29.8%) participants had been infected with covid-19, and six hundred and fourteen (70%) were not being infected. Regarding the correlation between the infection with COVID-19 and the sex and college stage, consequently, no substantial statistical differences were detected between the males and females amongst COVID infected students. This survey demonstrated that the terms of self-protective means in addition to community disaffection will be considerably drops the statistics of dental student's COVID infections.Copyright © RJPT. All right reserved.

Cohort study on the change trend of astigmatism among preschool children in Baiyun district, Guangzhou from 2018 to 2021.

AIM: To explore the characteristics of astigmatism in preschool children before, during and after the COVID-19 epidemic, so as to provide a reference for further prevention and control of children's vision. *METHODS: In the consecutive four years from January 2018 to December 2021, a retrospective analysis of vision data was conducted on 2 273 preschool children (4546 eyes) younger than 4 years old who participated in children' s vision screening test in Baiyun district, Guangzhou. They were divided into 1 - year old group (ages<1-year old, 420 cases), 2-year old group (1-year <= ages < 2- year, 543 cases), 3- year old group (2- year <=ages <3-year, 614 cases), and 4 - year old group (3 - year <= ages< 4- year, 696 cases) according to ages. The analysis included astigmatic degrees of children's eyes as well as their conditions of astigmatism. *RESULTS: In 2018, the astigmatic degrees of the both eyes of 1-year-old group were higher than those of other groups (P<0.05). The binocular astigmatic degrees of the preschool children in four groups were obviously higher in 2020 than 2019 (P < 0. 05), while they were significantly decreased in 2021 when compared with 2020 (P < 0. 05). From 2019 to 2020, the increase of astigmatic degrees of the right eye is more considerable than the left eye of preschool children in those four groups (P < 0. 001). Furthermore, the morbidity of astigmatism basically echoes with the changing tendency of astigmatic degrees from 2018 to 2021. *CONCLUSIONS: Preschool children in Baiyun district, Guangzhou, have the highest degree of astigmatism and the fastest progression rate within 1 year old. Before COVID - 19 epidemic, the changes in astigmatism and prevalence were relatively stable;during COVID - 19 epidemic, the astigmatism and prevalence increased significantly and the astigmatic degrees of right eye increased more than that of the left eye;after the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the astigmatism and prevalence decreased significantly.Copyright © 2023 International Journal of Ophthalmology (c/o Editorial Office). All rights reserved.

Understanding post-pandemic metro commuting ridership by considering the built environment: A quasi-natural experiment in Wuhan, China

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on metro commuting ridership. However, the exact magnitude and spatial and temporal characteristics of the impact remain unclear. In this study, we explored the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on metro commuting ridership in Wuhan, where the novel virus was first reported. The results of interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis showed that metro commuting ridership sharply dropped in the short term under the impact of the outbreak in the epicenter, rebounded rapidly as the pandemic eased, and it returned to pre-pandemic levels in six months. Furthermore, there was a noticeable spatial heterogeneity in the rebound. Urban centers, especially employment centers, recovered faster than other areas. In addition, the number of residents, number of bus stops, number of enterprises around a metro station and being a transfer station had a positive effect on metro ridership, while street length, number of restaurants, and number of metro exits had a negative effect. These findings may help local governments and metro managers develop sustainable metro operations and infection prevention policies to better cope with the impact of the pandemic and beyond.

Teaching Effect after Changing Mode of Continuing Medical Education during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Objective To explore the teaching effect of the teaching mode changed from traditional teaching to online teaching after the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Methods Relying on the Beijing Women's Health Care Technology Improvement Project, the online and offline continuing medical education was carried out, to train the obstetrician and gynecologist working in 16 maternal and child health care hospitals in 16 administrative regions of Beijing, which was planned from September 2020 to December 2025. This study retrospectively collected the assessment results of the two teaching modes from March 2021 to December 2021 (the first year of the teaching plan), and compared the teaching effects. Results Online teaching completed three sessions of 30 live online conference courses, with about 25 000 participants, including 4757 obstetricians and gynecologists from 16 maternal and child health care hospitals in Beijing. A total of 82 on-site teaching courses were held for offline teaching, and 1771 gynecologists and obstetricians from 16 maternity and child care hospitals in Beijing participated in the study. The scores of online teaching and offline teaching were 90.88+/-4.88 and 88.65+/-4.35, respectively. Conclusions Online teaching maybe has similar teaching effects as offline teaching. Compared with offline teaching, online teaching has more advantages, such as convenience, efficiency and economy, which is worthy of promotion and application in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.Copyright © 2022, Peking Union Medical College Hospital. All rights reserved.

Psychological distress and academic self-efficacy of nursing undergraduates under the normalization of COVID-19: multiple mediating roles of social support and mindfulness.

BACKGROUND: Nursing undergraduates' academic self-efficacy is a significant factor in determining their learning motivation, cognition, and emotions. It has a significant impact on improving academic performance and achieving learning goals. METHODS: To explore the mechanism of psychological distress affecting the academic self-efficacy of nursing undergraduates, the generalized anxiety disorder scale-7, patient health questionnaire-9, academic self-efficacy scale, perceived social support scale and mindful attention awareness scale were conducted. RESULTS: Model fitness indexes of the structural equation model is good (CMIN/DF = 1.404, RMSEA = 0.042, GFI = 0.977, IFI = 0.977, TLI = 0.954, CFI = 0.975, NFI = 0.923). Structural equation model analysis showed that social support and mindfulness were the mediating variables of psychological distress on academic self-efficacy. Mediating variables accounted for 44% of the total effect value (- 0.3) with a value of - 0.132. Three paths were verified: psychological distress indirectly affected academic self-efficacy through social support (- 0.064); psychological distress indirectly affected academic self-efficacy through mindfulness (- 0.053); psychological distress indirectly affected academic self-efficacy through social support and mindfulness (- 0.015). CONCLUSIONS: Social support and mindfulness play significant mediating roles in the effect of psychological distress on academic self-efficacy, and the chain mediating role of social support and mindfulness is also significant. Educators may mitigate the impact of psychological distress on academic self-efficacy by enhancing students' social support and mindfulness.

Virus (COVID-19) Epidemic and Sports Performance: Evidence from Asian Professional Football Clubs

When the COVID-19 epidemic spread around the world, researchers did many studies about sports and COVID-19, but there was not much quantitative research. Therefore the purpose of this study was the effect of the COVID-19 epidemic on the sports performance of Asian football clubs with quintile regression. This study used panel data for fifteen Asian football clubs from April to December 2020. The research used the points of Asia football clubs to estimate their sports performance. Also, this study collected cases and deaths caused by the COVID-19 epidemic as the other two variables. According to the results, because coefficient estimates (degree of depend-ence) for each quantile are equal (for both effects CA on SP and effect DE on SP), the dependence structure is said to be constant. Therefore, a positive estimate and equivalent in all quantile for the impact of cases of COVID-19 virus (CA) on Sports Performance (SP) show that cases of COVID-19 virus (CA) have a constant positive effect on sports performance (SP). A negative estimate and equivalent in all quantile for the impact of death of COVID-19 virus (DE) on Sports Performance (SP) show that death of COVID-19 virus (DE) has a constant negative effect on Sports Performance (SP). © 2023, Stanislaw Podobinski Publishing House of the Jan Dlugosz University. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of and Inequalities in COVID-19 Epidemic Control Strategies in Hungary: A Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study.

INTRODUCTION: Before the mass vaccination, epidemiological control measures were the only means of containing the COVID-19 epidemic. Their effectiveness determined the consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic. Our study evaluated the impact of sociodemographic, lifestyle, and clinical factors on patient-reported epidemiological control measures. METHODS: A nationwide representative sample of 1008 randomly selected adults were interviewed in person between 15 March and 30 May 2021. The prevalence of test-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection was 12.1%, of testing was 33.7%, and of contact tracing among test-confirmed infected subjects was 67.9%. The vaccination coverage was 52.4%. RESULTS: According to the multivariable logistic regression models, the occurrence of infection was not influenced by sociodemographic and lifestyle factors or by the presence of chronic disease. Testing was more frequent among middle-aged adults (aOR = 1.53, 95% CI 1.10-2.13) and employed adults (aOR = 2.06, 95% CI 1.42-3.00), and was more frequent among adults with a higher education (aORsecondary = 1.93, 95% CI 1.20-3.13; aORtertiary = 3.19, 95% CI 1.81-5.63). Contact tracing was more frequently implemented among middle-aged (aOR41-7y = 3.33, 95% CI 1.17-9.45) and employed (aOR = 4.58, 95% CI 1.38-15.22), and those with chronic diseases (aOR = 5.92, 95% CI 1.56-22.47). Positive correlation was observed between age groups and vaccination frequency (aOR41-70y = 2.94, 95% CI 2.09-4.15; aOR71+y = 14.52, 95% CI 7.33-28.77). Higher than primary education (aORsecondary = 1.69, 95% CI 1.08-2.63; aORtertiary = 4.36, 95% CI 2.46-7.73) and the presence of a chronic disease (aOR = 2.58, 95% CI 1.75-3.80) positively impacted vaccination. Regular smoking was inversely correlated with vaccination (aOR = 0.60; 95% CI 0.44-0.83). CONCLUSIONS: The survey indicated that testing, contact tracing, and vaccination were seriously influenced by socioeconomic position; less so by chronic disease prevalence and very minimally by lifestyle. The etiological role of socioeconomic inequalities in epidemic measure implementation likely generated socioeconomic inequality in COVID-19-related complication and death rates.

The Role of Mobility in the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Andalusia.

Metapopulation models have been a popular tool for the study of epidemic spread over a network of highly populated nodes (cities, provinces, countries) and have been extensively used in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In the present work, we revisit such a model, bearing a particular case example in mind, namely that of the region of Andalusia in Spain during the period of the summer-fall of 2020 (i.e., between the first and second pandemic waves). Our aim is to consider the possibility of incorporation of mobility across the province nodes focusing on mobile-phone time-dependent data, but also discussing the comparison for our case example with a gravity model, as well as with the dynamics in the absence of mobility. Our main finding is that mobility is key toward a quantitative understanding of the emergence of the second wave of the pandemic and that the most accurate way to capture it involves dynamic (rather than static) inclusion of time-dependent mobility matrices based on cell-phone data. Alternatives bearing no mobility are unable to capture the trends revealed by the data in the context of the metapopulation model considered herein.

Comparative analysis of prevention and control measures toward COVID-19 epidemic between Shanghai and Beijing.

Purpose: By serving and providing a guide for other regional places, this study aims to advance and guide the epidemic prevention and control methods, and practices and strengthen people's ability to respond to COVID-19 and other future potential public health risks. Design/methodology/approach: A comparative analysis was conducted that the COVID-19 epidemic development trend and prevention and control effects both in Beijing and Shanghai. In fact, regarding the COVID-19 policy and strategic areas, the differences between governmental, social, and professional management were discussed and explored. To prevent and be ready for potential pandemics, experience and knowledge were used and summarized. Findings: The strong attack of the Omicron variant in early 2022 has posed challenges to epidemic prevention and control practices in many Chinese cities. Shanghai, which had achieved relatively good performance in the fight against the epidemic, has exposed limitations in its epidemic prevention and control system in the face of Omicron. In fact, the city of Beijing has undertaken prompt and severe lockdown measures and achieved rather good results in epidemic prevention and control because of learning from Shanghai's experience and lessons; adhering to the overall concept of "dynamic clearing," implementing precise prevention and monitoring, enhancing community control, and making emergency plans and preparations. All these actions and measures are still essential in the shift from pandemic response to pandemic control. Research limitations/implications: Different places have introduced different urgent policies to control the spread of the pandemic. Strategies to control COVID-19 have often been based on preliminary and limited data and have tended to be slow to evolve as new evidence emerges. Hence, the effects of these anti-epidemic policies need to be further tested.

Protection against Chemical Warfare Agents and Biological Threats Using Metal-Organic Frameworks as Active Layers

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic outbreak and the unfortunate misuse of toxic chemical warfare agents (CWAs) highlight the importance of developing functional materials to protect against these chemical and pathogen threats. Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs), which comprise a tunable class of crystalline porous materials built from inorganic nodes and organic linkers, have emerged as a class of heterogeneous catalysts capable of rapid detoxification of multiple classes of these harmful chemical or biological hazards. In particular, zirconium-based MOFs (Zr-MOFs) feature Lewis acidic nodes that serve as active sites for a wide range of catalytic reactions, including the hydrolysis of organophosphorus nerve agents within seconds in basic aqueous solutions. In addition, postsynthetic modification of Zr-MOFs enables the release of active species capable of reacting with and deactivating harmful pathogens. Despite this impressive performance, utilizing Zr-MOFs in powder form is not practical for application in masks or protective uniforms. To address this challenge, our team sought to develop MOF/fiber composite systems that could be adapted for use under realistic operating conditions to protect civilians, military personnel, and first responders from harmful pathogens and chemical warfare agents. Over the last several years, our group has designed and fabricated reactive and biocidal MOF/fiber composites that effectively capture and deactivate these toxic species. In this Account, we describe the evolution of these porous and reactive MOF/fiber composites and focus on key design challenges and considerations. First, we devised a scalable method for the integration of Zr-MOFs onto textile substrates using aqueous precursor solutions and without using pretreated textiles, highlighting the potential scalability of this method. Moving beyond standard textiles, we also developed a microbial synthesis strategy to prepare hierarchically porous MOF/bacterial cellulose nanofiber composite sponges that can both capture and detoxify nerve agents when exposed to contaminated gas flows. The mass loading of the MOF in the nanofibrous composite sponge is up to 90%, affording higher work capacities compared to those of textile-fiber-based composites with relatively lower MOF loadings. Next, we demonstrated that heterogeneous polymeric bases are suitable replacements for volatile liquid bases typically used in solution-phase reactions, and we showed that these composite systems are capable of effectively hydrolyzing nerve agents in the solid state by using only water that is present as humidity. Moreover, incorporating a reactive dye precursor into the composite affords a dual function sensing and detoxifying material that changes color from white to orange upon reaction with the byproduct following nerve agent hydrolysis, demonstrating the versatility of this platform for use in decontamination applications. We then created chlorine-loaded MOF/fiber composites that act as biocidal and reactive textiles that are capable of not only detoxifying sulfur-mustard-based chemical warfare agents and simulants but also deactivating both bacteria and the SARS-CoV-2 virus within minutes of exposure. Finally, we synthesized a mixed-metal Ti/Zr-MOF coating on cotton fibers to afford a photoactive biocidal cloth that shows fast and broad-spectrum biocidal performance against viruses and Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria under visible light irradiation. Given the tunable, multifunctional nature of these MOF/fiber composites, we believe that this Account will offer new insights for the rational design and preparation of functional MOF/fiber composites and pave the way toward the development of next-generation reactive and protective textiles.

Alterations in Sleep Cycle among Nonhospitalized COVID-19-Affected Population during the Pandemic in Karnataka State-A Web-Based Study

Objectives The psychological and physiological distress and social isolation could adversely affect sleep. As sleep disturbances may persist and deteriorate health, it is important to assess prevalence and related factors of sleep disturbances among the residents of Karnataka state during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection.Methods In this study, 250 responders across the state of Karnataka accessed the survey voluntarily during September 2021 and January 2022. Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, Insomnia Severity Index scales, features that are related to sleep quality, and some hypothesized risk factors of sleep disturbances in context of COVID-19 infection are employed to format a self-reported questionnaire.Results In this study, females 27(19.1%) experienced more sleep disturbances than males 9 (8.3%). The study revealed the participants who received both the doses of vaccination (126;54.3%) had better sleep. The participants who reported themselves to be stressed (182;72.8%) had more disturbances in sleep. A total number of 45 participants (18.4%) experienced difficulty in breathing and out of all the responders 11 (47.8%) were actually worried about their current sleep problem.Conclusion COVID-19 infection and changes imposed during the pandemic have led to a surge in individuals reporting sleep problems across the globe. The findings raise the need to screen for worsening sleep patterns to create more awareness about the secondary consequences of COVID-19 infection.

Evaluating Software Quality in E-Learning System by Using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Approach: Case Study: Mu'tah University

This study defines and analyzes essential quality characteristics that should be addressed in the creation and implementation of an E-learning system in institutes, as well as its System Content's Quality, Characterizes, and Attributes. The model was empirically validated by fitting it to data from 302 students who participated in an E-learning AHP. All of the evaluated end-users were compared using the pairwise comparison technique in one of Jordan's colleges. Student Oriented Domain, Online Services, and Content Quality are the three sub characteristics of System Content Quality;each sub characteristic has its own set of traits that are used to determine the evaluation's outcome. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) has been widely employed in multi-criteria decision-making for a variety of practical decision-making situations. The AHP model was used to collect pairwise comparison judgments from all evaluated end users. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Systemic Risk of China's Financial Industry during the Spread of the COVID-19 Epidemic and the Breakdown of Crude Oil Negotiation

This research first adopts three indicators to measure the systemic risk of different financial industries in China. Second, we employ the Time Varying Parameter-Stochastic Volatility-Vector Auto Regression (TVP-SV-VAR) model to investigate the time-varying relationship among COVID-19 epidemic, crude oil price, and financial systemic risk. The results herein not only help us grasp the current level of systematic risk in China, but also can assist at improving the early warning risk indicators and enhance the risk management system. Lastly, this research can also help investors to make reasonable asset planning.

APP test system: a case study of calculus

COVID-19 has had a broad impact on society, and a profound impact on education, thus, distance online courses are seen as a way to continue schooling during the pandemic. This study employed Android Studio to develop an APP calculus learning test system which can be used for self-review exercises and allows students to make good use of mobile apps to conduct post-learning and self-testing of calculus at home, and immediately determine their learning results. In addition, through back-end access, teachers can view students' learning scores and the number of wrong and correct questions, and thus, know the effect of individual students' self-review. During the COVID-19 pandemic, as teachers and students cannot interact in class at school, teachers can use the APP calculus learning test system to provide distance remedial teaching to students who fall behind during the course.

Behavior and anticipation of the covid-19 crisis

The fact that the Covid-19 epidemic is still ongoing - and evolving in different ways in many different countries - means that there is still very little scientific synthesis work based on sufficient hindsight and objectivity that could be used to judge the behaviors that would have been necessary for curative anticipation of the Covid-19 crisis, i.e. anticipation that could permanently deal with Covid-19. The health, societal, economic and geopolitical implications of these crisis situations, which are already considerable today, may become even more significant in the near future. Communication to the public is increasingly becoming a major societal issue, as is the fight against fake news. When the time comes, it will also be appropriate to question the semantics used to describe the Covid-19 epidemic. An emerging topic is variants . This is a perfectly normal evolution of a mostly global virus, but new questions, behaviors and radical decisions emerge. © ISTE Ltd 2022.

THE EFFECT OF THE COVID-19 CRISIS ON THE SATISFACTION AND PERFORMANCE OF NURSES

The study reviews the effect of the COVID-19 crisis on the satisfaction and performance of nurses during the crisis as examined in studies carried out in ten countries (Italy, Australia, Great Britain, Germany, Israel, New Zealand, Spain, Canada, Romania, and Switzerland). The purpose of the study is to identify the scope and frequency of the phenomena reported by the nursing workforce from a broad global perspective and to provide information and recommendations to improve preparation for the future. The review shows that the COVID-19 crisis has affected the mental health of the nurses (Spain, Switzerland), anxiety, depression, and burnout (Switzerland, New Zealand, Canada, Germany), deterioration of working conditions mainly due to lack of staff, high employee turnover, and the lack of personal protective equipment (UK), and symptoms of stress and fear of contracting the disease (Romania, Germany, Canada). Also, the experience of coping during the pandemic period is seen as a deep mental trauma (Italy) and is characterized by the lack of mental support for the medical staff (Israel). The phenomena reported by the nursing staff in the countries examined caused less ability to function, lack of confidence, (to plan, concentrate, and organize), and a general decrease in motivation (Australia). Post-traumatic stress disorders were reported in all the countries examined.

A case study of Covid-19 epidemic in India via new generalised Caputo type fractional derivatives.

The first symptomatic infected individuals of coronavirus (Covid-19) was confirmed in December 2020 in the city of Wuhan, China. In India, the first reported case of Covid-19 was confirmed on 30 January 2020. Today, coronavirus has been spread out all over the world. In this manuscript, we studied the coronavirus epidemic model with a true data of India by using Predictor-Corrector scheme. For the proposed model of Covid-19, the numerical and graphical simulations are performed in a framework of the new generalised Caputo sense non-integer order derivative. We analysed the existence and uniqueness of solution of the given fractional model by the definition of Chebyshev norm, Banach space, Schauder's second fixed point theorem, Arzel's-Ascoli theorem, uniform boundedness, equicontinuity and Weissinger's fixed point theorem. A new analysis of the given model with the true data is given to analyse the dynamics of the model in fractional sense. Graphical simulations show the structure of the given classes of the non-linear model with respect to the time variable. We investigated that the mentioned method is copiously strong and smooth to implement on the systems of non-linear fractional differential equation systems. The stability results for the projected algorithm is also performed with the applications of some important lemmas. The present study gives the applicability of this new generalised version of Caputo type non-integer operator in mathematical epidemiology. We compared that the fractional order results are more credible to the integer order results.

The analysis of a time delay fractional COVID-19 model via Caputo type fractional derivative.

Novel coronavirus (COVID-19), a global threat whose source is not correctly yet known, was firstly recognised in the city of Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Now, this disease has been spread out to many countries in all over the world. In this paper, we solved a time delay fractional COVID-19 SEIR epidemic model via Caputo fractional derivatives using a predictor-corrector method. We provided numerical simulations to show the nature of the diseases for different classes. We derived existence of unique global solutions to the given time delay fractional differential equations (DFDEs) under a mild Lipschitz condition using properties of a weighted norm, Mittag-Leffler functions and the Banach fixed point theorem. For the graphical simulations, we used real numerical data based on a case study of Wuhan, China, to show the nature of the projected model with respect to time variable. We performed various plots for different values of time delay and fractional order. We observed that the proposed scheme is highly emphatic and easy to implementation for the system of DFDEs.